Brose Bamberg vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Telekom Baskets Bonn (57%) · Telekom Baskets Bonn at 58¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

Brose Bamberg42¢Telekom Baskets Bonn58¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Consensus Traders

Telekom Baskets Bonn 57%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$13.14

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 58¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTelekom Baskets Bonn at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Telekom Baskets Bonn

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Brose Bamberg42%

Telekom Baskets Bonn58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brose Bamberg6 traders

Total Value$841.17

Total Shares1,922

Combined PnL-$47.34

Telekom Baskets Bonn8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,996

Combined PnL+$60.48

Brose Bamberg — 43%Telekom Baskets Bonn — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Telekom Baskets Bonn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTelekom Baskets Bonn 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Telekom Baskets Bonn 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntoriCTR	Brose Bambergavg 47.5¢	$538.28	$492.68	-$45.6	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
FL Flaznorp	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 52.3¢	$480.73	$416.24	+$24.76	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
tradecraft	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 58¢	$211.7	$219	+$7.3	30% 340-779 (1119)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 52.5¢	$195.41	$209.93	+$14.52	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
VeryLucky888	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 58¢	$423.4	$209.04	+$6.25	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
CI cigarettesCTR	Brose Bambergavg 45¢	$112.5	$100	-$12.5	53% 7092-6207 (13299)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Brose Bambergavg 49¢	$94.15	$95.11	+$0.96	47% 899-999 (1898)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Brose Bambergavg 41¢	$89.04	$93.38	+$4.34	37% 972-1637 (2609)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Brose Bambergavg 42¢	$50.95	$56.4	+$5.46	36% 937-1647 (2584)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 52.1¢	$47.74	$53.11	+$5.37	46% 496-589 (1085)
38 38791873984189<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 52¢	$15.6	$16.05	+$0.45	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
LI LightParadox<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 49¢	$10.29	$12.18	+$1.89	37% 964-1664 (2628)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Telekom Baskets Bonnavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.05	-$0.05	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Brose Bambergavg 40¢	$3.6	$3.6	+$0	33% 68-137 (205)

suntoriCTR

Brose Bamberg

Invested

$538.28

Value

$492.68

PnL

-$45.6

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

Flaznorp

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$480.73

Value

$416.24

PnL

+$24.76

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

tradecraft

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$211.7

Value

$219

PnL

+$7.3

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$195.41

Value

$209.93

PnL

+$14.52

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

VeryLucky888

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$423.4

Value

$209.04

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

cigarettesCTR

Brose Bamberg

Invested

$112.5

Value

$100

PnL

-$12.5

Record

53%

7092-6207 (13299)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Brose Bamberg

Invested

$94.15

Value

$95.11

PnL

+$0.96

Record

47%

899-999 (1898)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Brose Bamberg

Invested

$89.04

Value

$93.38

PnL

+$4.34

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

LimousinCTR<$100

Brose Bamberg

Invested

$50.95

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$5.46

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$47.74

Value

$53.11

PnL

+$5.37

Record

46%

496-589 (1085)

38791873984189<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$15.6

Value

$16.05

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

LightParadox<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$10.29

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$1.89

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

ferdinand2<$100

Telekom Baskets Bonn

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Brose Bamberg

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

68-137 (205)

Research grade

AvoidTelekom Baskets Bonn at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Telekom Baskets Bonn

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Telekom Baskets Bonn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTelekom Baskets Bonn 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Telekom Baskets Bonn 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Telekom Baskets Bonn wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.