Zadar vs. Partizan

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Zadar (44%) · Zadar at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Zadar90¢Partizan10¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Zadar

Consensus Traders

Zadar 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$390.09

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 89.5¢

+142% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidZadar at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zadar

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zadar90%

Partizan11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zadar4 traders

Total Value$864.17

Total Shares937

Combined PnL+$426.91

Partizan5 traders

Total Value$172.97

Total Shares524

Combined PnL-$36.82

Zadar — 44%Partizan — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Zadaravg 37.4¢	$414.76	$817.54	+$414.75	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
tradecraftCTR	Partizanavg 71¢	$146.55	$125.97	-$20.58	31% 343-780 (1123)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Partizanavg 70¢	$328	$118.42	-$1.75	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
└ Partizan leg	Partizanavg 70¢	$70.03	$81.04	+$11.46
└ Zadar leg	Zadaravg 28.4¢	$55.93	$37.39	-$13.21
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Zadaravg 35¢	$24.9	$40	+$15.1	83% 729-152 (881)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Partizanavg 13.8¢	$31.35	$20.6	+$12.32	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
poshposhCTR<$100	Partizanavg 17¢	$13.84	$14.25	+$0.41	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Partizanavg 61.7¢	$40.59	$11.19	-$29.4	46% 497-591 (1088)
SE sentrio<$100	Zadaravg 30¢	$6.63	$4.2	-$2.43	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
LI Limousin<$100	Zadaravg 23¢	$2.95	$2.44	-$0.51	36% 950-1657 (2607)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Partizanavg 6¢	$0.53	$0.96	+$0.44	53% 7113-6221 (13334)

Flaznorp

Zadar

Invested

$414.76

Value

$817.54

PnL

+$414.75

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

tradecraftCTR

Partizan

Invested

$146.55

Value

$125.97

PnL

-$20.58

Record

31%

343-780 (1123)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Partizan

Invested

$328

Value

$118.42

PnL

-$1.75

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

Both legs:

Partizan$70.0370¢+$11.46

Zadar$55.9328.4¢-$13.21

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Zadar

Invested

$24.9

Value

$40

PnL

+$15.1

Record

83%

729-152 (881)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$31.35

Value

$20.6

PnL

+$12.32

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

poshposhCTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$13.84

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$40.59

Value

$11.19

PnL

-$29.4

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

sentrio<$100

Zadar

Invested

$6.63

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$2.43

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

Limousin<$100

Zadar

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.51

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Partizan

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

Research grade

AvoidZadar at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zadar

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zadar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.