KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Cedevita Olimpija

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold KK Crvena Zvezda (63%) · KK Crvena Zvezda at 91¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

KK Crvena Zvezda91¢Cedevita Olimpija9¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

KK Crvena Zvezda

Consensus Traders

KK Crvena Zvezda 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$40.29

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 91¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKK Crvena Zvezda at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

KK Crvena Zvezda

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

KK Crvena Zvezda91%

Cedevita Olimpija9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KK Crvena Zvezda5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,100

Combined PnL+$54.72

Cedevita Olimpija3 traders

Total Value$513.26

Total Shares559

Combined PnL-$14.43

KK Crvena Zvezda — 63%Cedevita Olimpija — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on KK Crvena Zvezda. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKK Crvena Zvezda 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000KK Crvena Zvezda 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 83.5¢	$966.2	$1.0K	+$74.86	46% 648-759 (1407)
SN SnakeBall	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 89.5¢	$702.67	$667.83	-$34.83	47% 1204-1382 (2586)
NO NotJumpCTR	Cedevita Olimpijaavg 50¢	$525	$509.25	-$15.75	50% 1145-1157 (2302)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Cedevita Olimpijaavg 12.1¢	$671.71	$250.47	+$43.57	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
└ Cedevita Olimpija leg	Cedevita Olimpijaavg 12.1¢	$127.65	$131.83	+$4.18
└ KK Crvena Zvezda leg	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 85¢	$115.26	$118.65	+$39.39
poshposh	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 81¢	$164.64	$177.74	+$13.11	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
38 38791873984189<$100	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 81.3¢	$53.71	$54.84	+$1.13	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
BA Bagwell306<$100	KK Crvena Zvezdaavg 80¢	$7.2	$7.65	+$0.45	37% 94-161 (255)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Cedevita Olimpijaavg 7¢	$14.48	$2.62	+$1.67	48% 2573-2776 (5349)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cedevita Olimpijaavg 15¢	$1.74	$1.39	-$0.35	38% 1352-2201 (3553)

omnibus-076daa

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$966.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$74.86

Record

46%

648-759 (1407)

SnakeBall

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$702.67

Value

$667.83

PnL

-$34.83

Record

47%

1204-1382 (2586)

NotJumpCTR

Cedevita Olimpija

Invested

$525

Value

$509.25

PnL

-$15.75

Record

50%

1145-1157 (2302)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Cedevita Olimpija

Invested

$671.71

Value

$250.47

PnL

+$43.57

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

Both legs:

Cedevita Olimpija$127.6512.1¢+$4.18

KK Crvena Zvezda$115.2685¢+$39.39

poshposh

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$164.64

Value

$177.74

PnL

+$13.11

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

38791873984189<$100

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$53.71

Value

$54.84

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

Bagwell306<$100

KK Crvena Zvezda

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.45

Record

37%

94-161 (255)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Cedevita Olimpija

Invested

$14.48

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$1.67

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cedevita Olimpija

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

Research grade

AvoidKK Crvena Zvezda at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

KK Crvena Zvezda

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on KK Crvena Zvezda. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKK Crvena Zvezda 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000KK Crvena Zvezda 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that KK Crvena Zvezda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.