Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cibona, while the market favors FMP (91%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cibona vs. FMP

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cibona (25%) · Cibona at 9.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 20

Cibona9¢FMP91¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cibona

Consensus Traders

Cibona 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$355.32

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 9¢

-79% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCibona at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cibona

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors FMP 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cibona9%

FMP91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cibona3 traders

Total Value$519.8

Total Shares2,239

Combined PnL-$417.87

FMP9 traders

Total Value$720.36

Total Shares924

Combined PnL+$62.55

Cibona — 25%FMP — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Cibona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCibona 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCibona 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cibona 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Cibonaavg 71.7¢	$383.58	$377.49	+$19.82	53% 1030-921 (1951)
FL Flaznorp	FMPavg 42.7¢	$254.05	$279.72	+$25.67	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
MO mouzsynapse	FMPavg 75¢	$158.85	$165.2	+$6.35	41% 91-133 (224)
38 38791873984189	FMPavg 63.7¢	$100.03	$114.61	+$14.58	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
RU RUDY2323CTR	Cibonaavg 35.1¢	$500	$113.88	-$386.12	41% 12-17 (29)
alpheclabs2<$100	FMPavg 61¢	$49.95	$59.78	+$9.83	46% 219-260 (479)
poshposhARB<$100	Cibonaavg 69¢	$89.85	$56.1	-$33.75	47% 786-902 (1688)
└ FMP leg	FMPavg 66.7¢	$29.75	$32.58	+$2.83
└ Cibona leg	Cibonaavg 69¢	$60.1	$23.52	-$36.58
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	FMPavg 67.7¢	$38.87	$40.59	+$1.72	82% 538-116 (654)
LR lryyy<$100	FMPavg 64¢	$28.16	$32.12	+$3.96	45% 595-734 (1329)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Cibonaavg 25.3¢	$79.99	$28.42	-$51.57	41% 137-199 (336)
SL SlickRick123<$100	FMPavg 66¢	$12.54	$13.87	+$1.33	32% 291-613 (904)
BA Bayupati<$100	FMPavg 28¢	$13.61	$13.12	-$0.49	15% 24-137 (161)
FE ferdinand2<$100	FMPavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.35	-$0.4	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cibona

Invested

$383.58

Value

$377.49

PnL

+$19.82

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Flaznorp

FMP

Invested

$254.05

Value

$279.72

PnL

+$25.67

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

mouzsynapse

FMP

Invested

$158.85

Value

$165.2

PnL

+$6.35

Record

41%

91-133 (224)

38791873984189

FMP

Invested

$100.03

Value

$114.61

PnL

+$14.58

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

RUDY2323CTR

Cibona

Invested

$500

Value

$113.88

PnL

-$386.12

Record

41%

12-17 (29)

alpheclabs2<$100

FMP

Invested

$49.95

Value

$59.78

PnL

+$9.83

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

poshposhARB<$100

Cibona

Invested

$89.85

Value

$56.1

PnL

-$33.75

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Both legs:

FMP$29.7566.7¢+$2.83

Cibona$60.169¢-$36.58

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

FMP

Invested

$38.87

Value

$40.59

PnL

+$1.72

Record

82%

538-116 (654)

lryyy<$100

FMP

Invested

$28.16

Value

$32.12

PnL

+$3.96

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Cibona

Invested

$79.99

Value

$28.42

PnL

-$51.57

Record

41%

137-199 (336)

SlickRick123<$100

FMP

Invested

$12.54

Value

$13.87

PnL

+$1.33

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

Bayupati<$100

FMP

Invested

$13.61

Value

$13.12

PnL

-$0.49

Record

15%

24-137 (161)

ferdinand2<$100

FMP

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

AvoidCibona at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cibona

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors FMP 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Cibona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCibona 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCibona 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cibona 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cibona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.