Bitcoin Up or Down on November 7?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
2
Down 100%
5 arb excluded
$8.7K
-$13
Research grade
NeutralDown at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $6.3K | $6.9K | +$648.9 | 65% 3105-1651 (4756) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $4.8K | $5.5K | +$790.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$141.17 | |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $497.55 | $559.14 | +$61.59 | 55% 52366-42837 (95203) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $252.82 | $327.09 | +$74.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.8¢ | $244.72 | $232.04 | -$12.68 | |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $480.11 | $540.13 | +$60.01 | 55% 51720-42172 (93892) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.3¢ | $233.99 | $315.98 | +$81.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.6¢ | $246.13 | $224.15 | -$21.98 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $406.67 | $369.79 | -$36.88 | 55% 3684-3040 (6724) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.3¢ | $247.51 | $257.32 | +$9.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.7¢ | $159.16 | $112.47 | -$46.69 | |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 44.5¢ | $360.71 | $200 | +$46.29 | 55% 50162-41771 (91933) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.1¢ | $88.24 | $117 | +$40.93 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.5¢ | $89.01 | $83 | +$5.36 | |
19 196874353278 | Downavg 56¢ | $117.14 | $58.7 | -$15.18 | 41% 365-535 (900) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $3.97 | $6.15 | +$2.18 | 48% 10627-11298 (21925) |
Invested
$6,289.27
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$648.9
Record
65%
3105-1651 (4756)
Both legs:
Invested
$497.55
Value
$559.14
PnL
+$61.59
Record
55%
52366-42837 (95203)
Both legs:
Invested
$480.11
Value
$540.13
PnL
+$60.01
Record
55%
51720-42172 (93892)
Both legs:
Invested
$406.67
Value
$369.79
PnL
-$36.88
Record
55%
3684-3040 (6724)
Both legs:
Invested
$360.71
Value
$200
PnL
+$46.29
Record
55%
50162-41771 (91933)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.14
Value
$58.7
PnL
-$15.18
Record
41%
365-535 (900)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$3.97
Value
$6.15
PnL
+$2.18
Record
48%
10627-11298 (21925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.