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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4AM ET
Resolved Up. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Down 100%
Total Value
$3.9K
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Down
8 of 8 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf1d0453f...a46453
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2026-4am-et