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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3AM ET
Resolved Up. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Down 100%
Total Value
$2.1K
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Down
8 of 8 top traders (100%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9369b87b...25916c
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-4-2026-3am-et