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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5AM ET
Resolved Up. 99.99999999999999% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 99.99999999999999%
Total Value
$2.9K
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Down
6 of 6 top traders (99.99999999999999%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3be6dc60...edbe86
Slug
bitcoin-up-or-down-october-12-2026-5am-et