Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 4AM ET

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 99¢ · $747 held · ends Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$746.78

Combined PnL

-$127.47

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 99.5¢

+50% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$571.83

Total Shares901

Combined PnL-$26.91

Up2 traders

Total Value$59.14

Total Shares506

Combined PnL-$100.57

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KARIZMATIKU	Downavg 66.5¢	$574.77	$535.9	-$38.87	51% 712-671 (1383)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$183.81	$115.81	-$68	12% 18952-134199 (153151)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91¢	$91	$92	+$1
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.2¢	$92.81	$23.81	-$69
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$23.97	$35.93	+$11.96	51% 10690-10141 (20831)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$26.5	$32.83	+$6.33	49% 10667-11322 (21989)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.6¢	$133.21	$26.31	-$106.89	58% 39867-28830 (68697)

KARIZMATIKU

Down

Invested

$574.77

Value

$535.9

PnL

-$38.87

Record

51%

712-671 (1383)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$183.81

Value

$115.81

PnL

-$68

Record

12%

18952-134199 (153151)

Both legs:

Invested

$23.97

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$11.96

Record

51%

10690-10141 (20831)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$32.83

PnL

+$6.33

Record

49%

10667-11322 (21989)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$133.21

Value

$26.31

PnL

-$106.89

Record

58%

39867-28830 (68697)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.