Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6PM ET

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Up71¢Down29¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$58.9

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 71¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up71%

Down29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$598.67

Total Shares767

Combined PnL-$32.78

Down5 traders

Total Value$387.42

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$91.68

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$791.87	$876.94	+$85.06	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$315.75	$606.81	+$291.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$476.12	$270.13	-$205.99
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$536.49	$501.88	+$1.88	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$253.68	$275.6	+$19.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$243.1	$226.28	-$17.72
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 69.8¢	$1.0K	$458.71	-$47.84	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 42.9¢	$221.57	$339.14	+$117.57	48% 971-1037 (2008)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$359.74	$336.41	-$21.49	52% 1730-1622 (3352)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$298.57	$206.01	-$92.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.6¢	$58.9	$130.39	+$71.07
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$334.52	$292.72	-$17.2	52% 1741-1612 (3353)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$285	$162.45	-$112.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.9¢	$34.52	$130.27	+$95.75
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$518.4	$214.87	-$123.42	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$123	$122.25	+$28.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$245.33	$92.62	-$151.56
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 55.4¢	$104.89	$96.62	-$8.27	51% 433-415 (848)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$64.34	$44.64	-$9.24	60% 4369-2959 (7328)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$25.28	$23.83	-$3.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$26.48	$20.81	-$5.67
KA KARIZMATIKU<$100	Upavg 33¢	$20	$43.33	+$23.33	20% 41-164 (205)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Downavg 50.3¢	$968.59	$29.65	-$23.86	46% 1752-2030 (3782)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 64¢	$16.65	$12.65	-$4	50% 1805-1831 (3636)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 33.3¢	$79.26	$3.5	+$2.1	54% 2814-2386 (5200)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.48	-$0.13	50% 1016-1007 (2023)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$791.87

Value

$876.94

PnL

+$85.06

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

Both legs:

Up$315.7538.8¢+$291.05

Down$476.1244.9¢-$205.99

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$536.49

Value

$501.88

PnL

+$1.88

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Down$253.6848.8¢+$19.6

Up$243.150.5¢-$17.72

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,033.98

Value

$458.71

PnL

-$47.84

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Down

Invested

$221.57

Value

$339.14

PnL

+$117.57

Record

48%

971-1037 (2008)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$359.74

Value

$336.41

PnL

-$21.49

Record

52%

1730-1622 (3352)

Both legs:

Down$298.5750¢-$92.56

Up$58.929.6¢+$71.07

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$334.52

Value

$292.72

PnL

-$17.2

Record

52%

1741-1612 (3353)

Both legs:

Invested

$518.4

Value

$214.87

PnL

-$123.42

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

Both legs:

Up$12382¢+$28.13

Down$245.3349¢-$151.56

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$104.89

Value

$96.62

PnL

-$8.27

Record

51%

433-415 (848)

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.34

Value

$44.64

PnL

-$9.24

Record

60%

4369-2959 (7328)

Both legs:

Up$25.2863.1¢-$3.58

Down$26.4851.5¢-$5.67

KARIZMATIKU<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$43.33

PnL

+$23.33

Record

20%

41-164 (205)

rabadabadooCTR

Down

Invested

$968.59

Value

$29.65

PnL

-$23.86

Record

46%

1752-2030 (3782)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.65

Value

$12.65

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

1805-1831 (3636)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.26

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$2.1

Record

54%

2814-2386 (5200)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1016-1007 (2023)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.