Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3AM ET

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (85%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$338

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 99.6¢

+38% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares4,968

Combined PnL-$237.76

Down2 traders

Total Value$229.48

Total Shares560

Combined PnL-$100.24

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Up 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 71.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$64.84	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 76.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.92	49% 908-934 (1842)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.8¢	$528.36	$500	-$16	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 89.8¢	$426.36	$460.75	+$34.38	44% 77-100 (177)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 48¢	$187	$377.9	+$190.9	19% 38-162 (200)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Downavg 33.5¢	$241.87	$226.99	-$14.88	47% 1617-1858 (3475)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 92.5¢	$1.0K	$219.85	-$199.6	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
AL almach	Upavg 97¢	$1.4K	$213.11	-$357.38	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 66.9¢	$102.04	$147.89	+$45.84	50% 390-388 (778)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$90.77	$56.4	+$9.2	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$11.73	$23.09	+$11.36	48% 216-233 (449)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 79.3¢	$125.53	$3.41	-$3.38	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$87.84	$2.48	-$85.36	50% 908-909 (1817)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,865.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$64.84

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$1,044.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$17.92

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$528.36

Value

$500

PnL

-$16

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$426.36

Value

$460.75

PnL

+$34.38

Record

44%

77-100 (177)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$187

Value

$377.9

PnL

+$190.9

Record

19%

38-162 (200)

rabadabadooCTR

Down

Invested

$241.87

Value

$226.99

PnL

-$14.88

Record

47%

1617-1858 (3475)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,029.18

Value

$219.85

PnL

-$199.6

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

almach

Invested

$1,420.98

Value

$213.11

PnL

-$357.38

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$102.04

Value

$147.89

PnL

+$45.84

Record

50%

390-388 (778)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$90.77

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$9.2

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$11.73

Value

$23.09

PnL

+$11.36

Record

48%

216-233 (449)

ply-pm2

Invested

$125.53

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$3.38

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$87.84

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$85.36

Record

50%

908-909 (1817)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Up 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.