Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1PM ET

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Up80¢Down20¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$148.45

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 79.5¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up80%

Down21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,571

Combined PnL+$96.75

Down6 traders

Total Value$221.97

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL-$245.2

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Down 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 67.3¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$368.53	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 50.4¢	$788.86	$741.86	+$352.97	19% 39-162 (201)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$550.85	$506.94	-$13.88	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$266.43	$357.06	+$90.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$246.45	$149.88	-$104.69
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$655.49	$473.61	-$53.72	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$398.96	$365.77	-$49.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$127.72	$107.85	-$4.27
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$438.43	$373.59	-$64.84	49% 950-986 (1936)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.6¢	$254.93	$291.26	+$36.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$183.5	$82.33	-$101.17
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 48.8¢	$231.35	$343.65	+$112.3	46% 94-110 (204)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$526.66	$244.1	-$13.89	46% 1715-1974 (3689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.4¢	$179.38	$182.08	-$18.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.1¢	$67.9	$62.03	+$4.34
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$155.16	$123.59	-$31.57	51% 422-405 (827)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$58	$80	+$22
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$97.16	$43.59	-$53.57
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44.7¢	$192.05	$86.01	-$106.04	51% 2213-2109 (4322)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 52¢	$298.2	$58.1	-$103.86	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$59.39	$30.25	-$8.63	60% 4284-2912 (7196)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 22.6¢	$27.33	$24.16	-$3.17	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 40.6¢	$40.57	$19.98	-$20.58	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$51.39	$3.47	-$2.92	54% 2739-2328 (5067)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,559.97

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$368.53

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$788.86

Value

$741.86

PnL

+$352.97

Record

19%

39-162 (201)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$550.85

Value

$506.94

PnL

-$13.88

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Both legs:

Up$266.4351.9¢+$90.81

Down$246.4550.2¢-$104.69

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$655.49

Value

$473.61

PnL

-$53.72

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

Both legs:

Up$398.9674.7¢-$49.45

Down$127.7237.3¢-$4.27

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$438.43

Value

$373.59

PnL

-$64.84

Record

49%

950-986 (1936)

Both legs:

Up$254.9369.6¢+$36.33

Down$183.545.7¢-$101.17

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$231.35

Value

$343.65

PnL

+$112.3

Record

46%

94-110 (204)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$526.66

Value

$244.1

PnL

-$13.89

Record

46%

1715-1974 (3689)

Both legs:

Up$179.3871.4¢-$18.23

Down$67.930.1¢+$4.34

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.16

Value

$123.59

PnL

-$31.57

Record

51%

422-405 (827)

Both legs:

Up$5858¢+$22

Down$97.1644.6¢-$53.57

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$192.05

Value

$86.01

PnL

-$106.04

Record

51%

2213-2109 (4322)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$298.2

Value

$58.1

PnL

-$103.86

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.39

Value

$30.25

PnL

-$8.63

Record

60%

4284-2912 (7196)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.33

Value

$24.16

PnL

-$3.17

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.57

Value

$19.98

PnL

-$20.58

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.39

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$2.92

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Down 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.