Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$170.99

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 85.5¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,350

Combined PnL+$76.79

Up5 traders

Total Value$262.64

Total Shares1,325

Combined PnL-$247.78

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$51.1	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.6¢	$541.32	$494.99	-$10.85	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.7¢	$384.16	$407.09	+$22.93	50% 972-964 (1936)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 65.1¢	$385.49	$172.41	+$5.14	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$415.52	$139.2	+$0.14	47% 1695-1948 (3643)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.5¢	$107.33	$99.08	+$2.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.3¢	$35.63	$40.13	-$1.87
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$185.17	$133.47	+$17.57	49% 938-977 (1915)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.8¢	$120.88	$97.17	-$23.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$20.68	$36.3	+$41.27
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 45¢	$207.91	$80.85	-$127.06	46% 92-106 (198)
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 51¢	$187	$64.17	-$122.83	19% 39-162 (201)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$61.81	$50.6	-$11.21	51% 415-401 (816)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$42	$43.5	+$1.5	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$39.87	$40.09	+$2.6	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$11.7	$23.52	+$11.82	51% 1661-1571 (3232)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 46¢	$14.44	$15.7	+$1.26	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74¢	$54.04	$7.96	+$4.61	54% 2708-2292 (5000)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,791.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$51.1

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$541.32

Value

$494.99

PnL

-$10.85

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$384.16

Value

$407.09

PnL

+$22.93

Record

50%

972-964 (1936)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$385.49

Value

$172.41

PnL

+$5.14

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$415.52

Value

$139.2

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

1695-1948 (3643)

Both legs:

Down$107.3377.5¢+$2.01

Up$35.6325.3¢-$1.87

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$185.17

Value

$133.47

PnL

+$17.57

Record

49%

938-977 (1915)

Both legs:

Up$120.8821.8¢-$23.71

Down$20.6847¢+$41.27

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$207.91

Value

$80.85

PnL

-$127.06

Record

46%

92-106 (198)

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Invested

$187

Value

$64.17

PnL

-$122.83

Record

19%

39-162 (201)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$61.81

Value

$50.6

PnL

-$11.21

Record

51%

415-401 (816)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$39.87

Value

$40.09

PnL

+$2.6

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$23.52

PnL

+$11.82

Record

51%

1661-1571 (3232)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$14.44

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$1.26

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$54.04

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$4.61

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.3%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.