Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6PM ET

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 98¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Up98¢Down2¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$618.68

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 97.5¢

+46% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up98%

Down3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,329

Combined PnL-$142.11

Down5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,883

Combined PnL-$476.57

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 70.4¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$489.69	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 44.6¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$273.7	50% 832-828 (1660)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 58.1¢	$759.34	$966.24	+$320.48	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 74.4¢	$990.11	$901.33	-$88.78	49% 883-907 (1790)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51¢	$528.66	$495.5	-$14.51	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
FI fiankeeCTR	Downavg 49.6¢	$574.03	$416.29	-$157.74	55% 26-21 (47)
AL almach	Upavg 75¢	$409.38	$361.58	+$34.28	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 60.4¢	$205.12	$298.92	+$118.07	47% 69-77 (146)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$209.7	$164.9	-$44.8	50% 363-357 (720)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$152.41	$86.43	-$65.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.2¢	$57.29	$78.47	+$21.18
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 72.5¢	$701.33	$154.2	-$25.65	47% 1521-1740 (3261)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Downavg 31.6¢	$128.76	$120.12	-$8.64	49% 429-439 (868)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.6¢	$90.82	$89.02	-$1.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.2¢	$37.93	$31.1	-$6.83
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 52¢	$100	$119.29	+$19.29	19% 37-162 (199)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$95.36	$83.73	-$11.63	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 50.3¢	$109.13	$78.03	-$31.1	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$74.86	$44.54	-$13.1	59% 3783-2578 (6361)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 91.3¢	$151.02	$29.76	-$2.51	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$31.2	$28.8	-$2.4	50% 1577-1608 (3185)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,336.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$489.69

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$1,424.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$273.7

Record

50%

832-828 (1660)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$759.34

Value

$966.24

PnL

+$320.48

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$990.11

Value

$901.33

PnL

-$88.78

Record

49%

883-907 (1790)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$528.66

Value

$495.5

PnL

-$14.51

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

fiankeeCTR

Down

Invested

$574.03

Value

$416.29

PnL

-$157.74

Record

55%

26-21 (47)

almach

Invested

$409.38

Value

$361.58

PnL

+$34.28

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$205.12

Value

$298.92

PnL

+$118.07

Record

47%

69-77 (146)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$209.7

Value

$164.9

PnL

-$44.8

Record

50%

363-357 (720)

Both legs:

Up$152.4169.7¢-$65.98

Down$57.2944.2¢+$21.18

rabadabadoo

Invested

$701.33

Value

$154.2

PnL

-$25.65

Record

47%

1521-1740 (3261)

Anon455ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.76

Value

$120.12

PnL

-$8.64

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

Both legs:

Down$90.8231.6¢-$1.8

Up$37.9384.2¢-$6.83

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$100

Value

$119.29

PnL

+$19.29

Record

19%

37-162 (199)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$95.36

Value

$83.73

PnL

-$11.63

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$109.13

Value

$78.03

PnL

-$31.1

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$74.86

Value

$44.54

PnL

-$13.1

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

ply-pm2

Invested

$151.02

Value

$29.76

PnL

-$2.51

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.2

Value

$28.8

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.