Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12PM ET

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 99¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 99.2¢

+57% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,639

Combined PnL+$530.84

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,857

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KARIZMATIKU	Upavg 47.8¢	$3.5K	$4.1K	+$1.7K	15% 28-157 (185)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 70.1¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$358.06	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 44.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$3.68	50% 782-781 (1563)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 81.4¢	$950.78	$886.04	-$64.75	49% 865-890 (1755)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.5¢	$545.17	$498.05	-$12.35	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 69.9¢	$427.45	$486.82	+$59.37	50% 336-335 (671)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 97.6¢	$457.59	$463.61	+$6.02	47% 60-69 (129)
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 59.6¢	$383.3	$363.34	-$19.96	49% 421-430 (851)
BO bosona	Upavg 99.1¢	$1.8K	$302.07	-$771.11	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 51.5¢	$1.8K	$154.35	-$521.48	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44¢	$127.16	$127.16	+$0	50% 1856-1838 (3694)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 72.8¢	$629.42	$126.67	+$1.37	46% 1447-1671 (3118)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 52.2¢	$1.1K	$77.35	-$596.96	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 73.6¢	$78.17	$49.48	-$12.38	59% 3605-2478 (6083)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 91¢	$127.63	$24.97	-$6.96	54% 2271-1956 (4227)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$12.15	$8.91	-$3.24	50% 196-197 (393)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$4.35	$4.4	+$0.05	49% 1477-1548 (3025)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 47¢	$1.5K	$3.22	-$585.28	51% 1368-1337 (2705)

KARIZMATIKU

Invested

$3,462.5

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

15%

28-157 (185)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,972.06

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$358.06

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$1,082.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$3.68

Record

50%

782-781 (1563)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$950.78

Value

$886.04

PnL

-$64.75

Record

49%

865-890 (1755)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$545.17

Value

$498.05

PnL

-$12.35

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$427.45

Value

$486.82

PnL

+$59.37

Record

50%

336-335 (671)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$457.59

Value

$463.61

PnL

+$6.02

Record

47%

60-69 (129)

Anon455CTR

Down

Invested

$383.3

Value

$363.34

PnL

-$19.96

Record

49%

421-430 (851)

bosona

Invested

$1,757.57

Value

$302.07

PnL

-$771.11

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$1,840.09

Value

$154.35

PnL

-$521.48

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$127.16

Value

$127.16

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1856-1838 (3694)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$629.42

Value

$126.67

PnL

+$1.37

Record

46%

1447-1671 (3118)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$1,065.73

Value

$77.35

PnL

-$596.96

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$78.17

Value

$49.48

PnL

-$12.38

Record

59%

3605-2478 (6083)

ply-pm2

Invested

$127.63

Value

$24.97

PnL

-$6.96

Record

54%

2271-1956 (4227)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.15

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$3.24

Record

50%

196-197 (393)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

1477-1548 (3025)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$1,521.87

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$585.28

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.