Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11AM ET

16 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Up1¢Down99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 98.7¢

+58% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 18 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares10,141

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Up2 traders

Total Value$55.96

Total Shares4,009

Combined PnL-$994.45

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.3¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	+$639.78	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 74.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$188.47	49% 861-889 (1750)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 43.6¢	$960.3	$957.31	-$3	50% 770-773 (1543)
AL almach	Downavg 63.5¢	$898.23	$718.34	+$409.78	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
BO bosona	Downavg 55.2¢	$672.82	$636.09	+$478.54	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52¢	$532.67	$500.13	+$16.63	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 73.6¢	$353.81	$344.23	-$9.58	50% 331-330 (661)
AN Anon455	Downavg 69.6¢	$225.11	$257.01	+$31.91	50% 421-428 (849)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 82.4¢	$1.5K	$210.38	+$427.43	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 43¢	$126.85	$146.03	+$19.18	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 92¢	$1.3K	$127.01	+$30.32	46% 1437-1660 (3097)
AA aaa221	Downavg 74.8¢	$125.76	$57.85	+$13.24	59% 3587-2446 (6033)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 85.8¢	$129.59	$55.94	+$3.83	54% 2251-1949 (4200)
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR	Upavg 38.8¢	$1.5K	$53.19	$-1.5K	15% 27-154 (181)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 72¢	$12.24	$12.5	+$0.25	50% 195-197 (392)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 90.7¢	$441.18	$12.06	+$190.96	46% 58-69 (127)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$4.35	$4.95	+$0.6	49% 1453-1538 (2991)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 3¢	$1.0K	$2.77	+$482.14	50% 1342-1353 (2695)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,780.27

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$639.78

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,030.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$188.47

Record

49%

861-889 (1750)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$960.3

Value

$957.31

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

770-773 (1543)

almach

Down

Invested

$898.23

Value

$718.34

PnL

+$409.78

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

bosona

Down

Invested

$672.82

Value

$636.09

PnL

+$478.54

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$532.67

Value

$500.13

PnL

+$16.63

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$353.81

Value

$344.23

PnL

-$9.58

Record

50%

331-330 (661)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$225.11

Value

$257.01

PnL

+$31.91

Record

50%

421-428 (849)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,531.38

Value

$210.38

PnL

+$427.43

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$126.85

Value

$146.03

PnL

+$19.18

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$1,254.41

Value

$127.01

PnL

+$30.32

Record

46%

1437-1660 (3097)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$125.76

Value

$57.85

PnL

+$13.24

Record

59%

3587-2446 (6033)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$129.59

Value

$55.94

PnL

+$3.83

Record

54%

2251-1949 (4200)

KARIZMATIKUCTR

Invested

$1,529.77

Value

$53.19

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

15%

27-154 (181)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

195-197 (392)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$441.18

Value

$12.06

PnL

+$190.96

Record

46%

58-69 (127)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

1453-1538 (2991)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$1,028.53

Value

$2.77

PnL

+$482.14

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 18 top traders (89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.