Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10AM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 81%
2 arb excluded
$8.9K
$3.0K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $2.2K | $2.9K | +$778.47 | 50% 3041-2991 (6032) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$246.34 | 49% 861-889 (1750) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $745.3 | $1.1K | +$353.67 | 50% 770-773 (1543) |
FI fiankee | Downavg 49.1¢ | $384.42 | $782.95 | +$398.53 | 55% 24-20 (44) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $552.59 | $494 | +$29.79 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 44¢ | $305.04 | $424.03 | +$335.2 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $365.48 | $479 | +$113.52 | 46% 58-69 (127) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 47.6¢ | $213.2 | $305.38 | +$92.18 | 50% 421-428 (849) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 80.5¢ | $2.1K | $315.36 | +$202.27 | 52% 2153-1992 (4145) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $488.18 | $219.4 | +$303.72 | 50% 1354-1329 (2683) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.5¢ | $99.91 | $219.4 | +$142.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14¢ | $78.39 | — | +$161.02 | |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $144.55 | $116.68 | -$27.87 | 50% 331-330 (661) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.3¢ | $84.33 | $116.68 | +$32.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.2¢ | $60.23 | — | -$60.23 | |
RA rabadabadoo | Downavg 75.3¢ | $1.3K | $132.18 | +$44.21 | 46% 1437-1660 (3097) |
KA KARIZMATIKUCTR | Upavg 54.3¢ | $187 | — | -$187 | 15% 27-154 (181) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $133.88 | $59.18 | -$1.44 | 59% 3587-2446 (6033) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $143.7 | $23.67 | +$12.97 | 54% 2251-1949 (4200) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $43.86 | — | -$43.86 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
EA Eager47259<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $11.73 | $17.25 | +$5.52 | 50% 195-197 (392) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.5¢ | $4.12 | — | -$4.12 | 49% 1453-1538 (2991) |
BO bosona | Downavg 42.5¢ | $550.8 | $0 | +$610.76 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
Invested
$2,154.81
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$778.47
Record
50%
3041-2991 (6032)
Invested
$1,234.58
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$246.34
Record
49%
861-889 (1750)
Invested
$745.3
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$353.67
Record
50%
770-773 (1543)
Invested
$384.42
Value
$782.95
PnL
+$398.53
Record
55%
24-20 (44)
Invested
$552.59
Value
$494
PnL
+$29.79
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$305.04
Value
$424.03
PnL
+$335.2
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
Invested
$365.48
Value
$479
PnL
+$113.52
Record
46%
58-69 (127)
Invested
$213.2
Value
$305.38
PnL
+$92.18
Record
50%
421-428 (849)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$2,093.61
Value
$315.36
PnL
+$202.27
Record
52%
2153-1992 (4145)
Invested
$488.18
Value
$219.4
PnL
+$303.72
Record
50%
1354-1329 (2683)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.55
Value
$116.68
PnL
-$27.87
Record
50%
331-330 (661)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,309.42
Value
$132.18
PnL
+$44.21
Record
46%
1437-1660 (3097)
Invested
$187
Value
—
PnL
-$187
Record
15%
27-154 (181)
Invested
$133.88
Value
$59.18
PnL
-$1.44
Record
59%
3587-2446 (6033)
Invested
$143.7
Value
$23.67
PnL
+$12.97
Record
54%
2251-1949 (4200)
Invested
$43.86
Value
—
PnL
-$43.86
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$17.25
PnL
+$5.52
Record
50%
195-197 (392)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$4.12
Value
—
PnL
-$4.12
Record
49%
1453-1538 (2991)
Invested
$550.8
Value
$0
PnL
+$610.76
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.9K
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $1.5K
PBot-6
Down — $1.1K
fiankee
Down — $782.95
ByteBadger92
Down — $494
mo-money
Down — $424.03
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $479
Anon455
Down — $305.38
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $315.36
almach
ARBArbitrage — excluded