Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8AM ET

20 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (95%) · Down at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Up1¢Down99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 95%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 99¢

+65% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares12,244

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Up1 trader

Total Value$29.06

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$20.93

Down — 95%Up — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 28%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 28% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Down 95% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 66.7¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$411.81	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 75.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$89.43	49% 600-626 (1226)
FI fiankee	Downavg 49.5¢	$620.94	$1.1K	+$457.07	38% 8-13 (21)
AL almach	Downavg 54.2¢	$545.58	$959.3	+$413.72	48% 784-859 (1643)
AN Anon455	Downavg 62.1¢	$684.47	$905.46	+$220.99	49% 286-302 (588)
MO mo-money	Downavg 62.3¢	$525.15	$824.43	+$299.29	47% 787-874 (1661)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 46.3¢	$401.02	$744.25	+$343.23	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 44.5¢	$254.05	$491.04	+$236.99	48% 1139-1229 (2368)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$480	-$20	—
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$480	-$20	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 80.5¢	$446.82	$476.07	+$29.25	51% 226-217 (443)
BO bosona	Downavg 54.9¢	$565.16	$468.46	+$433.16	50% 4018-3992 (8010)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.5¢	$186.84	$361.28	+$174.44	51% 422-410 (832)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.8¢	$2.6K	$195.63	+$223.49	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
DE devonpoll	Downavg 50¢	$186.23	$163.4	+$2.22	53% 304-271 (575)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 88.4¢	$1.7K	$96.31	+$19.13	47% 908-1031 (1939)
AA aaa221	Downavg 81¢	$142.89	$47.84	-$0.48	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$49.99	$29.06	-$20.93	27% 158-429 (587)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$18.4	$23.95	+$5.55	47% 870-993 (1863)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47¢	$10.34	$21.89	+$11.55	47% 1280-1435 (2715)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69¢	$24.24	$21.31	+$8.41	54% 1521-1314 (2835)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,093.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$411.81

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,140.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$89.43

Record

49%

600-626 (1226)

fiankee

Down

Invested

$620.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$457.07

Record

38%

8-13 (21)

almach

Down

Invested

$545.58

Value

$959.3

PnL

+$413.72

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$684.47

Value

$905.46

PnL

+$220.99

Record

49%

286-302 (588)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$525.15

Value

$824.43

PnL

+$299.29

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$401.02

Value

$744.25

PnL

+$343.23

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$254.05

Value

$491.04

PnL

+$236.99

Record

48%

1139-1229 (2368)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$480

PnL

-$20

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$480

PnL

-$20

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$446.82

Value

$476.07

PnL

+$29.25

Record

51%

226-217 (443)

bosona

Down

Invested

$565.16

Value

$468.46

PnL

+$433.16

Record

50%

4018-3992 (8010)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$186.84

Value

$361.28

PnL

+$174.44

Record

51%

422-410 (832)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,607.89

Value

$195.63

PnL

+$223.49

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$186.23

Value

$163.4

PnL

+$2.22

Record

53%

304-271 (575)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$1,727.68

Value

$96.31

PnL

+$19.13

Record

47%

908-1031 (1939)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$142.89

Value

$47.84

PnL

-$0.48

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Invested

$49.99

Value

$29.06

PnL

-$20.93

Record

27%

158-429 (587)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$18.4

Value

$23.95

PnL

+$5.55

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.34

Value

$21.89

PnL

+$11.55

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$24.24

Value

$21.31

PnL

+$8.41

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 21 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 28%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

95% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 28% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Down 95% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.