Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (64%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7AM ET

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 37¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Up64¢Down36¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 36.5¢

-30% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Up 64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up64%

Down37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,554

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Up2 traders

Total Value$58.75

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$30.93

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Down 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 62.4¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$512.43	50% 1695-1670 (3365)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$139.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$373.36
KA KARIZMATIKUARB<$100	Downavg 34.3¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$953.72	7% 11-136 (147)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$171.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$768.84	$1.2K	+$781.95
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$162.64	49% 590-617 (1207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$657.13	$457.74	-$199.39
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 63.6¢	$3.9K	$970.86	-$697.89	53% 1315-1180 (2495)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.6¢	$725.91	$690.61	-$422.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$412.09	$280.25	-$274.93
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 54.1¢	$1.2K	$577.12	-$158.04	47% 771-869 (1640)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$255	+$5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$245	-$5
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$255	+$5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$245	-$5
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 45.8¢	$424.65	$472.85	+$48.2	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$424.21	-$383.34	50% 4000-3988 (7988)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 53.1¢	$1.5K	$386.91	-$471.29	47% 765-855 (1620)
AN Anon455CTR	Downavg 62¢	$375.56	$308.91	-$66.64	48% 284-302 (586)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$346.3	$300.74	-$45.56	51% 221-215 (436)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$244.3	$198.74	-$45.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$102	$102	+$0
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$172.65	+$1.45	52% 287-262 (549)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$91.8	+$1.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$82.5	$80.85	-$0.35
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 45¢	$91.63	$103.89	+$12.26	50% 412-405 (817)
AA aaa221	Upavg 51.3¢	$133.44	$48.16	-$29.29	60% 2300-1532 (3832)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Downavg 39.2¢	$1.6K	$38.97	-$17.09	47% 899-1015 (1914)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$53.25	$21.05	+$0.68	53% 1497-1303 (2800)
FI fiankeeCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$19	$19.38	+$0.38	38% 8-13 (21)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$12.23	$10.59	-$1.64	47% 101-114 (215)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.55	+$0.35	46% 853-986 (1839)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$3,332.35

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$512.43

Record

50%

1695-1670 (3365)

Both legs:

Down$1,598.4755.9¢-$139.07

Up$1,733.8862.4¢-$373.36

KARIZMATIKUARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,429.73

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$953.72

Record

11-136 (147)

Both legs:

Down$1,120.7334.3¢+$171.78

Up$768.8439.1¢+$781.95

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$1,863.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$162.64

Record

49%

590-617 (1207)

Both legs:

Up$1,206.2464.5¢+$36.75

Down$657.1348.1¢-$199.39

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$3,898.79

Value

$970.86

PnL

-$697.89

Record

53%

1315-1180 (2495)

Both legs:

Up$725.9163.6¢-$422.96

Down$412.0958.1¢-$274.93

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$1,208.92

Value

$577.12

PnL

-$158.04

Record

47%

771-869 (1640)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$5

Up$25050¢-$5

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Invested

$424.65

Value

$472.85

PnL

+$48.2

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$1,054.83

Value

$424.21

PnL

-$383.34

Record

50%

4000-3988 (7988)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$1,462.02

Value

$386.91

PnL

-$471.29

Record

47%

765-855 (1620)

Anon455CTR

Down

Invested

$375.56

Value

$308.91

PnL

-$66.64

Record

48%

284-302 (586)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$346.3

Value

$300.74

PnL

-$45.56

Record

51%

221-215 (436)

Both legs:

Invested

$180

Value

$172.65

PnL

+$1.45

Record

52%

287-262 (549)

Both legs:

Invested

$91.63

Value

$103.89

PnL

+$12.26

Record

50%

412-405 (817)

aaa221

Invested

$133.44

Value

$48.16

PnL

-$29.29

Record

60%

2300-1532 (3832)

rabadabadooCTR

Down

Invested

$1,609.3

Value

$38.97

PnL

-$17.09

Record

47%

899-1015 (1914)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.25

Value

$21.05

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

1497-1303 (2800)

fiankeeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$19

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

38%

8-13 (21)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.23

Value

$10.59

PnL

-$1.64

Record

47%

101-114 (215)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

46%

853-986 (1839)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Up 64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Down 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.1%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.