Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11AM ET

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (87%) · Down at 65¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Up36¢Down64¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 87%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$76.77

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 64.5¢

+25% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 15 top traders (87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up36%

Down65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,006

Combined PnL-$48.21

Up2 traders

Total Value$78.31

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$28.57

Down — 87%Up — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 51.1¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$71.67	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
KA KARIZMATIKUARB<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$66.81	9% 15-144 (159)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$572.88	$754	+$181.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$497.24	$256.26	-$247.92
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69¢	$2.0K	$877.42	-$42.67	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 46¢	$549.73	$555.5	+$5.77	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
PB PBot-6	Downavg 45.4¢	$282.95	$290.1	+$7.15	50% 437-429 (866)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 49.9¢	$221.85	$283.5	+$61.65	49% 624-641 (1265)
DE devonpollARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$180	$174.9	+$0.45	53% 312-279 (591)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$86.25	$117.3	+$32.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$90	$57.6	-$32.4
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$1.7K	$167.4	-$20.48	47% 926-1058 (1984)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$120	$126.45	+$96.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$52.67	$40.95	-$117.17
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 47¢	$146.64	$151.32	+$4.68	—
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 44.4¢	$94.98	$60.99	-$33.99	51% 232-221 (453)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$95.41	$50.48	-$11.43	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 27.1¢	$47.84	$41.5	-$6.34	49% 291-303 (594)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$50.31	$26.78	+$4.37	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$11.9	$17.33	+$5.42	46% 104-120 (224)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.48	+$0.27	47% 912-1024 (1936)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 28¢	$0.32	$0.32	+$0.01	48% 822-890 (1712)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$3,210.16

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$71.67

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

KARIZMATIKUARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,133.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$66.81

Record

15-144 (159)

Both legs:

Down$572.8854.7¢+$181.12

Up$497.2454.3¢-$247.92

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,004.05

Value

$877.42

PnL

-$42.67

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$549.73

Value

$555.5

PnL

+$5.77

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$282.95

Value

$290.1

PnL

+$7.15

Record

50%

437-429 (866)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$221.85

Value

$283.5

PnL

+$61.65

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

devonpollARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180

Value

$174.9

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

312-279 (591)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,668.36

Value

$167.4

PnL

-$20.48

Record

47%

926-1058 (1984)

Both legs:

Down$12076.9¢+$96.69

Up$52.6724.4¢-$117.17

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$146.64

Value

$151.32

PnL

+$4.68

Record

—

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$94.98

Value

$60.99

PnL

-$33.99

Record

51%

232-221 (453)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$95.41

Value

$50.48

PnL

-$11.43

Record

60%

2389-1604 (3993)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$47.84

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$6.34

Record

49%

291-303 (594)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$50.31

Value

$26.78

PnL

+$4.37

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$5.42

Record

46%

104-120 (224)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

912-1024 (1936)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

822-890 (1712)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 15 top traders (87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$49.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.