Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9AM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 82¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

Up19¢Down81¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$70.52

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 81.5¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up19%

Down82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,140

Combined PnL+$212.16

Up2 traders

Total Value$437.97

Total Shares2,119

Combined PnL-$141.64

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.4¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$86.81	53% 938-848 (1786)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 65.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$184.89	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
BO bosona	Downavg 75.6¢	$500.69	$539.33	+$38.64	50% 3755-3780 (7535)
SI SingWCTR	Upavg 26.5¢	$529.62	$410	-$119.62	12% 10-75 (85)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.4¢	$361.26	$377.15	+$15.89	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$191.2	$185.08	-$6.13	52% 150-141 (291)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$115.2	$126.57	+$11.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$76	$58.5	-$17.5
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48¢	$65.23	$114.45	+$49.22	46% 809-946 (1755)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$18.55	$28.34	+$9.79	53% 1050-932 (1982)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$50	$27.98	-$22.02	20% 104-405 (509)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 44¢	$4.39	$4.94	+$0.55	58% 1663-1228 (2891)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,301.61

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$86.81

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,627.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$184.89

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

bosona

Down

Invested

$500.69

Value

$539.33

PnL

+$38.64

Record

50%

3755-3780 (7535)

SingWCTR

Invested

$529.62

Value

$410

PnL

-$119.62

Record

12%

10-75 (85)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$361.26

Value

$377.15

PnL

+$15.89

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$191.2

Value

$185.08

PnL

-$6.13

Record

52%

150-141 (291)

Both legs:

Up$115.237.8¢+$11.37

Down$7676¢-$17.5

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$65.23

Value

$114.45

PnL

+$49.22

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$18.55

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$9.79

Record

53%

1050-932 (1982)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$27.98

PnL

-$22.02

Record

20%

104-405 (509)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

1663-1228 (2891)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.