Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4AM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Up17¢Down83¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$11.14

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 83.5¢

+34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up17%

Down84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$367.33

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$7.54

Up2 traders

Total Value$28.93

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$3.6

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Downavg 69.8¢	$240.7	$239.77	-$0.93	55% 3002-2434 (5436)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$241.96	$236.92	-$5.05	59% 22781-16148 (38929)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.6¢	$162.6	$167.24	+$4.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$79.36	$69.67	-$9.69
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$236.13	$219	-$17.13	55% 50824-41403 (92227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$133.2	$143.44	+$10.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$102.93	$75.55	-$27.38
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$175.78	$154.35	-$21.43	64% 58827-33397 (92224)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$110.53	$112.35	+$1.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$65.25	$42	-$23.25
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$97.09	$95.81	-$1.28	58% 51315-37430 (88745)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 55¢	$22	$31.75	+$9.75	51% 8268-7803 (16071)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$16.72	$18.93	+$2.2	51% 20337-19419 (39756)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$8.6	$10	+$1.4	58% 38383-27483 (65866)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$240.7

Value

$239.77

PnL

-$0.93

Record

55%

3002-2434 (5436)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$241.96

Value

$236.92

PnL

-$5.05

Record

59%

22781-16148 (38929)

Both legs:

Down$162.667.6¢+$4.64

Up$79.3634.7¢-$9.69

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$236.13

Value

$219

PnL

-$17.13

Record

55%

50824-41403 (92227)

Both legs:

Down$133.260.8¢+$10.24

Up$102.9347¢-$27.38

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$175.78

Value

$154.35

PnL

-$21.43

Record

64%

58827-33397 (92224)

Both legs:

Down$110.5370.8¢+$1.82

Up$65.2543.5¢-$23.25

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$97.09

Value

$95.81

PnL

-$1.28

Record

58%

51315-37430 (88745)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$22

Value

$31.75

PnL

+$9.75

Record

51%

8268-7803 (16071)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$16.72

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$2.2

Record

51%

20337-19419 (39756)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

38383-27483 (65866)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.