Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 15?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$7.9K
$23.06
97.8¢ → 98.8¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $7.3K | $7.4K | +$72.92 | 66% 95-49 (144) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $238.33 | $240.43 | +$2.1 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
E4 e46m3 | Yesavg 98.8¢ | $192.65 | $192.55 | -$0.1 | 43% 2572-3394 (5966) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Noavg 2.3¢ | $112.1 | $61.15 | -$50.94 | 48% 94-100 (194) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 98.6¢ | $64.43 | $34.56 | +$0.13 | 47% 753-850 (1603) |
EA easypredictCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.1¢ | $2.59 | $1.54 | -$1.05 | — 0-2 (2) |
Invested
$7,290.64
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$72.92
Record
66%
95-49 (144)
Invested
$238.33
Value
$240.43
PnL
+$2.1
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
Invested
$192.65
Value
$192.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
2572-3394 (5966)
Invested
$112.1
Value
$61.15
PnL
-$50.94
Record
48%
94-100 (194)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$64.43
Value
$34.56
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
753-850 (1603)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$1.05
Record
—
0-2 (2)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.