Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 98¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 14

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$20.5K

Combined PnL

-$241.94

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 97.6¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares20,763

Combined PnL-$239.26

No2 traders

Total Value$268.64

Total Shares10,332

Combined PnL-$2.68

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 97¢	$21.1K	$12.6K	-$576.08	68% 148-69 (217)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 90¢	$4.5K	$4.9K	+$370	— 5-4 (9)
E4 e46m3	Yesavg 98.2¢	$810.03	$803.57	-$6.47	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 96¢	$2.0K	$670.93	-$15.08	72% 102-39 (141)
NO NotJump	Yesavg 97.1¢	$876.67	$488.19	-$12.9	53% 631-566 (1197)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 97.7¢	$436.25	$434.72	-$1.53	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616	Yesavg 96.7¢	$275.15	$277.82	+$2.67	58% 26-19 (45)
EA Eager47259CTR	Noavg 2.5¢	$247.56	$256.53	+$8.96	50% 157-155 (312)
Facaie<$100	Yesavg 97.5¢	$97.5	$97.55	+$0.05	92% 59-5 (64)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 96.5¢	$137.83	$14.73	+$0.08	48% 1182-1297 (2479)
EA easypredictCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$23.76	$12.11	-$11.65	— 2-3 (5)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$21,141.11

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$576.08

Record

68%

148-69 (217)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$4,500

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$370

Record

—

5-4 (9)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$810.03

Value

$803.57

PnL

-$6.47

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$2,013.11

Value

$670.93

PnL

-$15.08

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

NotJump

Yes

Invested

$876.67

Value

$488.19

PnL

-$12.9

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$436.25

Value

$434.72

PnL

-$1.53

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616

Yes

Invested

$275.15

Value

$277.82

PnL

+$2.67

Record

58%

26-19 (45)

Eager47259CTR

Invested

$247.56

Value

$256.53

PnL

+$8.96

Record

50%

157-155 (312)

Facaie<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.5

Value

$97.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

92%

59-5 (64)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$137.83

Value

$14.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

1182-1297 (2479)

easypredictCTR<$100

Invested

$23.76

Value

$12.11

PnL

-$11.65

Record

—

2-3 (5)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.