Spread: Club Brugge (-1.5)
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Club Brugge (70%) · Club Brugge at 82¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Club Brugge
10
Club Brugge 70%
$10.7K
$1.6K
52.7¢ → 82¢
+56% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Brugge at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | SV Zulte Waregemavg 50.8¢ | $4.2K | $5.0K | +$768.09 | 55% 1727-1417 (3144) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Club Bruggeavg 56.5¢ | $2.5K | $3.8K | +$1.2K | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Club Bruggeavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$360 | 47% 2471-2781 (5252) |
 VeryLucky888 | Club Bruggeavg 49.1¢ | $249.03 | $162.43 | -$38.14 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
 fyrskenCTR | SV Zulte Waregemavg 54¢ | $108 | $120 | +$12 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Club Bruggeavg 45¢ | $34.38 | $44.69 | +$10.31 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Club Bruggeavg 49¢ | $47.04 | $38.4 | -$8.64 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Club Bruggeavg 48¢ | $15.01 | $12.51 | -$2.5 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Club Bruggeavg 35¢ | $1.77 | $1.9 | +$0.13 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | SV Zulte Waregemavg 18¢ | $1.26 | $1.16 | -$0.1 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
Invested
$4,219.56
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$768.09
Record
55%
1727-1417 (3144)
Invested
$2,549.67
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$1,960
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$360
Record
47%
2471-2781 (5252)
VeryLucky888Invested
$249.03
Value
$162.43
PnL
-$38.14
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$108
Value
$120
PnL
+$12
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$34.38
Value
$44.69
PnL
+$10.31
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$47.04
Value
$38.4
PnL
-$8.64
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
Invested
$15.01
Value
$12.51
PnL
-$2.5
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.13
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
VD721lsj4938Dk388
CTRSV Zulte Waregem — $5.0K
GoalLineGhost
Club Brugge — $3.8K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
Club Brugge — $1.6K
VeryLucky888
Club Brugge — $162.43
fyrsken
CTRSV Zulte Waregem — $120
UpTheBlues
Club Brugge — $44.69
LeLynxMalynx
Club Brugge — $38.4
LuckyLoo
Club Brugge — $12.51
topdogbigboi
Club Brugge — $1.9
HRTrading
CTRSV Zulte Waregem — $1.16