Will Club Brugge win on 2026-10-30?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 70¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Yes70¢No30¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$21.69

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,499

Combined PnL+$0

No5 traders

Total Value$613.64

Total Shares2,028

Combined PnL-$21.69

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM SmallFishGambler	Yesavg 69.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	43% 18-24 (42)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 29.7¢	$823.66	$839.43	+$15.77	50% 24853-24559 (49412)
└ No leg	Noavg 29.7¢	$464.66	$477.83	+$13.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69¢	$359	$361.6	+$2.6
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 32¢	$316.25	$296.48	-$14.82	47% 2468-2770 (5238)
fyrskenCTR	Noavg 31¢	$186	$183	-$3	49% 276-287 (563)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 31.4¢	$123.47	$119.87	-$3.61	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$8.06	$8.2	+$0.13	50% 24905-24594 (49499)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$15.8	$6.1	-$0.4	58% 41483-30101 (71584)

SmallFishGambler

Yes

Invested

$1,746.53

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18-24 (42)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$823.66

Value

$839.43

PnL

+$15.77

Record

50%

24853-24559 (49412)

Both legs:

No$464.6629.7¢+$13.17

Yes$35969¢+$2.6

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$316.25

Value

$296.48

PnL

-$14.82

Record

47%

2468-2770 (5238)

fyrskenCTR

Invested

$186

Value

$183

PnL

-$3

Record

49%

276-287 (563)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$123.47

Value

$119.87

PnL

-$3.61

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

24905-24594 (49499)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.