Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
KVC Westerlo vs. Royal Charleroi SC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$1.2K
-$9.11
64.4¢ → 44¢
-32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $818.75 | $806.42 | -$12.33 | 56% 8223-6528 (14751) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 35.2¢ | $139.48 | $144.78 | +$5.3 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 63.8¢ | $127.57 | $125.99 | -$1.58 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 36.1¢ | $79.82 | $79.52 | -$0.3 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 36.7¢ | $12.5 | $12.25 | -$0.25 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $5.63 | $5.7 | +$0.08 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.18 | -$0.03 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$818.75
Value
$806.42
PnL
-$12.33
Record
56%
8223-6528 (14751)
Invested
$139.48
Value
$144.78
PnL
+$5.3
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$127.57
Value
$125.99
PnL
-$1.58
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$79.82
Value
$79.52
PnL
-$0.3
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$12.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$5.63
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.18
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.