Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 48¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$438.85

Smart Money Entry

41.2¢ → 47.5¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,744

Combined PnL+$427.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,818

Combined PnL+$11.69

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 41.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$231.82	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 40.3¢	$884.65	$1.0K	+$158.48	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 61¢	$1.6K	$961.17	+$7.82	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
RN1CTR	Noavg 43.9¢	$268.66	$284.88	+$16.22	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 60¢	$147.06	$150.74	+$3.68	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$26.72	$42.84	+$16.12	47% 6203-6908 (13111)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$11.9	$16.28	+$4.38	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$29.19	$11.24	+$0.15	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$20	$10	+$0.2	59% 52299-37045 (89344)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$2,059.15

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$231.82

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$884.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$158.48

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$1,562.89

Value

$961.17

PnL

+$7.82

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

RN1CTR

Invested

$268.66

Value

$284.88

PnL

+$16.22

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$147.06

Value

$150.74

PnL

+$3.68

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$26.72

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$16.12

Record

47%

6203-6908 (13111)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$4.38

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$29.19

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.