Will KAA Gent win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 81¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Yes81¢No19¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$56.38

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 80.5¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,712

Combined PnL-$12.89

No5 traders

Total Value$977.94

Total Shares3,281

Combined PnL-$43.49

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$452	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.7¢	$662.85	$754.48	+$91.63
└ No leg	Noavg 34.5¢	$1.2K	$706.33	-$543.64
fraj0la	Yesavg 68.5¢	$1.0K	$998.99	-$14.24	63% 257-151 (408)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 30¢	$690.84	$748.41	+$57.57	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$363.6	$400.94	+$37.34	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$246.11	$314.47	+$68.36
└ No leg	Noavg 26.5¢	$117.49	$86.47	-$31.02
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 67¢	$150.8	$151.92	+$1.13	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 33.4¢	$245.09	$142.92	-$102.17	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$65.14	$66.07	+$0.93	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$12.41	$12.94	+$0.53	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$7.95	$7.6	-$0.35	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$5	$5.23	+$0.23	59% 33715-23828 (57543)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,912.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$452

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$662.8570.7¢+$91.63

No$1,249.9734.5¢-$543.64

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,013.23

Value

$998.99

PnL

-$14.24

Record

63%

257-151 (408)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$690.84

Value

$748.41

PnL

+$57.57

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$363.6

Value

$400.94

PnL

+$37.34

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Yes$246.1163¢+$68.36

No$117.4926.5¢-$31.02

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$150.8

Value

$151.92

PnL

+$1.13

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$245.09

Value

$142.92

PnL

-$102.17

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$65.14

Value

$66.07

PnL

+$0.93

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$12.94

PnL

+$0.53

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.