Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Club Brugge win on 2026-11-08?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$182.68

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 38.5¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,955

Combined PnL+$186.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$231.79

Total Shares364

Combined PnL-$3.67

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 35.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$98.14	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 35.2¢	$357.16	$380.09	+$22.93	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 35.3¢	$306.94	$334.79	+$27.86	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 34.8¢	$160.95	$177.98	+$17.04	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 32¢	$158.79	$176.15	+$17.37	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 64¢	$150.76	$149.58	-$1.18	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$76	$77	+$1	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$50.93	$49.76	-$1.18	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Yesavg 67.1¢	$33.77	$32.46	-$1.32	54% 1244-1053 (2297)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$4.88	$5.25	+$0.37	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$17	$3.85	+$1.65	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,014.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$98.14

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$357.16

Value

$380.09

PnL

+$22.93

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$306.94

Value

$334.79

PnL

+$27.86

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$160.95

Value

$177.98

PnL

+$17.04

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$158.79

Value

$176.15

PnL

+$17.37

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$150.76

Value

$149.58

PnL

-$1.18

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Invested

$76

Value

$77

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.93

Value

$49.76

PnL

-$1.18

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.77

Value

$32.46

PnL

-$1.32

Record

54%

1244-1053 (2297)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$1.65

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.