Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $107 held · ends Dec 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$107.05

Combined PnL

-$210.91

Smart Money Entry

19.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$106.63

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes11 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares842

Combined PnL-$210.96

No — 15%Yes — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.93	$74.96	+$0.04	24% 91-281 (372)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.65	$31.66	+$0.02	53% 6070-5437 (11507)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$59.38	$0.15	-$59.24	47% 4815-5470 (10285)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$43.38	$0.11	-$43.27	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$75.1	$0.04	-$26.26	37% 3456-5935 (9391)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$10	$0.03	-$9.98	33% 73-145 (218)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8.4	$0.02	-$8.38	26% 378-1084 (1462)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8	$0.02	-$7.98	11% 6-50 (56)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	26% 870-2505 (3375)
NO northdrawerCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$190.91	$0.02	-$42.89	27% 948-2550 (3498)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6	$0.02	-$5.99	9% 3-29 (32)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$5	$0.01	-$4.99	39% 1064-1647 (2711)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2	$0.01	-$2	30% 2950-6939 (9889)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

24%

91-281 (372)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$31.66

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6070-5437 (11507)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.38

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$59.24

Record

47%

4815-5470 (10285)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.38

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$43.27

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$26.26

Record

37%

3456-5935 (9391)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.98

Record

33%

73-145 (218)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$8.38

Record

26%

378-1084 (1462)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.98

Record

11%

6-50 (56)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

870-2505 (3375)

northdrawerCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$42.89

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.99

Record

3-29 (32)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.99

Record

39%

1064-1647 (2711)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.