Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.7

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

18.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$4.7

Total Shares7,702

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

449h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$344.45	$1.71	-$342.74	56% 3734-2961 (6695)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 16.4¢	$285.96	$0.87	-$285.09	45% 2313-2837 (5150)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$296.56	$0.78	-$295.78	35% 16909-31257 (48166)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$133.09	$0.33	-$132.76	25% 180-537 (717)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$125.37	$0.31	-$125.05	60% 7177-4733 (11910)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$30	$0.16	-$64.42	50% 7792-7738 (15530)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 20.1¢	$1.2K	$0.15	-$278.31	92% 8583-746 (9329)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$36.06	$0.09	-$35.97	59% 218-153 (371)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$32.8	$0.08	-$32.72	17% 221-1065 (1286)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$9.92	$0.06	-$6.63	37% 1884-3207 (5091)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$57.45	$0.04	-$23.8	23% 176-599 (775)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$36.61	$0.04	-$22.57	30% 2186-5024 (7210)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$3.05	$0.04	-$3.01	42% 1795-2476 (4271)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$10	$0.02	-$9.97	55% 6022-5005 (11027)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR

Yes

Invested

$344.45

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$342.74

Record

56%

3734-2961 (6695)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$285.96

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$285.09

Record

45%

2313-2837 (5150)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$296.56

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$295.78

Record

35%

16909-31257 (48166)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.09

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$132.76

Record

25%

180-537 (717)

qwen300.fundCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.37

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$125.05

Record

60%

7177-4733 (11910)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$64.42

Record

50%

7792-7738 (15530)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,245.45

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$278.31

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.06

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$35.97

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.8

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$32.72

Record

17%

221-1065 (1286)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.92

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$6.63

Record

37%

1884-3207 (5091)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$23.8

Record

23%

176-599 (775)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.61

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$22.57

Record

30%

2186-5024 (7210)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.01

Record

42%

1795-2476 (4271)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.97

Record

55%

6022-5005 (11027)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

449h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.