Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 17

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$67.72

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 91.5¢

+5% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,680

Combined PnL+$67.72

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

173h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 86.1¢	$503.75	$534.76	+$31	41% 3122-4487 (7609)
balthazar	Noavg 86.9¢	$259.86	$273.63	+$13.76	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 88.7¢	$190.8	$196.73	+$5.92	27% 936-2514 (3450)
Lucerys	Noavg 89.7¢	$118.2	$120.6	+$2.4	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 93¢	$98.58	$96.99	-$1.59	84% 43-8 (51)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$67.83	$69.6	+$1.77	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.5	$45.75	+$3.25	80% 48-12 (60)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 86¢	$36.12	$38.43	+$2.31	26% 378-1078 (1456)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 88¢	$38.3	$36.4	+$0.58	10% 3-27 (30)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 85¢	$33.15	$35.69	+$2.54	39% 1053-1631 (2684)
AU auros2<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$53.79	$29.85	+$1.53	84% 66-13 (79)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 87¢	$26.73	$28.11	+$1.38	43% 387-516 (903)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 85¢	$25.5	$27.45	+$1.95	— 2-14 (16)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.5	$9.15	+$0.65	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.58	+$0.28	54% 565-474 (1039)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$503.75

Value

$534.76

PnL

+$31

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

balthazar

Invested

$259.86

Value

$273.63

PnL

+$13.76

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

northdrawer

Invested

$190.8

Value

$196.73

PnL

+$5.92

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

Lucerys

Invested

$118.2

Value

$120.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

korda77<$100

Invested

$98.58

Value

$96.99

PnL

-$1.59

Record

84%

43-8 (51)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$67.83

Value

$69.6

PnL

+$1.77

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

merod<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$45.75

PnL

+$3.25

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$36.12

Value

$38.43

PnL

+$2.31

Record

26%

378-1078 (1456)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$38.3

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$0.58

Record

10%

3-27 (30)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$33.15

Value

$35.69

PnL

+$2.54

Record

39%

1053-1631 (2684)

auros2<$100

Invested

$53.79

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$1.53

Record

84%

66-13 (79)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$26.73

Value

$28.11

PnL

+$1.38

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$1.95

Record

—

2-14 (16)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

565-474 (1039)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

173h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.