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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved No. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

No 100%

Total Value

$1.55

Combined PnL

$0

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.55

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.55	$1.55	+$0	77% 1392-412 (1804)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	45% 2761-3311 (6072)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	—	—	+$0	61% 20932-13324 (34256)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	48% 3433-3720 (7153)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	42% 50-68 (118)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	52% 4955-4582 (9537)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	52% 2454-2273 (4727)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	—	—	+$0	32% 4390-9443 (13833)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	77% 8872-2635 (11507)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	—	—	+$0	36% 15259-27344 (42603)

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

1392-412 (1804)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

2761-3311 (6072)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

20932-13324 (34256)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3433-3720 (7153)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

50-68 (118)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4955-4582 (9537)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2454-2273 (4727)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

4390-9443 (13833)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

8872-2635 (11507)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

15259-27344 (42603)

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcad869d7...1864a0

Slug

bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539216

Traders in this Market

QMG-CORE

No — $1.55

Bigggggggg

No — $0

balthazar

No — $0

alex20011

No — $0

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Yes — $0

korda77

No — $0

merod

No — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

Hourglass

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

Trade on Polymarket