Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 98¢ · $617 held · ends Dec 17

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$617.01

Combined PnL

-$66.26

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 98.4¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$605.15

Total Shares611

Combined PnL+$6.09

Yes6 traders

Total Value$11.86

Total Shares977

Combined PnL-$72.35

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.3¢	$440.83	$439.55	-$1.28	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$63.6	$63.54	-$0.71	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
0xdc3E831cad<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$51.04	$59.28	+$7.8	49% 1840-1908 (3748)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 99¢	$24.97	$24.96	-$0.01	40% 283-428 (711)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$17.53	$17.82	+$0.29	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$20.67	$5.58	-$15.09	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$3.05	$2.75	-$0.3	51% 257-247 (504)
LP lpgbCTR	Yes	$109.26	$1.54	-$47.1	28% 479-1254 (1733)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$9.02	$1.29	-$7.73	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.29	$0.57	+$0.28	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	-$2.41	46% 10307-11997 (22304)

Lucerys

Invested

$440.83

Value

$439.55

PnL

-$1.28

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$63.6

Value

$63.54

PnL

-$0.71

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

0xdc3E831cad<$100

Invested

$51.04

Value

$59.28

PnL

+$7.8

Record

49%

1840-1908 (3748)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$24.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

283-428 (711)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$17.53

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$0.29

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.67

Value

$5.58

PnL

-$15.09

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

257-247 (504)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.26

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$47.1

Record

28%

479-1254 (1733)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.02

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$7.73

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.28

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.41

Record

46%

10307-11997 (22304)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.