Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 17

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Thu, Dec 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$134.1

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 72¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$477.97

Total Shares2,102

Combined PnL+$5.41

No7 traders

Total Value$791.18

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL+$128.69

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AG aghyCTR	Yesavg 26.5¢	$400	$346.54	-$91.13	— 5-11 (16)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 72.2¢	$277.02	$239.39	+$15.41	45% 2924-3585 (6509)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 72.3¢	$208.17	$210.02	+$1.85	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
LP lpgb	Noavg 75.4¢	$311.68	$136.37	-$7.36	27% 551-1528 (2079)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$98.07	$78.23	-$4.21	53% 8525-7603 (16128)
SP SpringlyFawl	Noavg 73¢	$105.06	$74.88	+$8.87	29% 2495-6009 (8504)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$212.41	$73.77	+$99.65	34% 19152-36682 (55834)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$52.31	$48.44	-$3.89	— 4-0 (4)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 75¢	$38.38	$33.01	-$0.38	17% 4484-21727 (26211)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$65.84	$19.28	+$114.51	45% 10561-12883 (23444)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$44.23	$4.92	+$0.47	75% 13414-4377 (17791)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$21	$4.31	+$0.32	47% 4060-4558 (8618)

aghyCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$346.54

PnL

-$91.13

Record

—

5-11 (16)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$277.02

Value

$239.39

PnL

+$15.41

Record

45%

2924-3585 (6509)

cigarettes

Invested

$208.17

Value

$210.02

PnL

+$1.85

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

lpgb

Invested

$311.68

Value

$136.37

PnL

-$7.36

Record

27%

551-1528 (2079)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$98.07

Value

$78.23

PnL

-$4.21

Record

53%

8525-7603 (16128)

SpringlyFawl

Invested

$105.06

Value

$74.88

PnL

+$8.87

Record

29%

2495-6009 (8504)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$212.41

Value

$73.77

PnL

+$99.65

Record

34%

19152-36682 (55834)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.31

Value

$48.44

PnL

-$3.89

Record

—

4-0 (4)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$38.38

Value

$33.01

PnL

-$0.38

Record

17%

4484-21727 (26211)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$65.84

Value

$19.28

PnL

+$114.51

Record

45%

10561-12883 (23444)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.23

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.47

Record

75%

13414-4377 (17791)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.32

Record

47%

4060-4558 (8618)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.