Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Energetik Mingechevir vs. Shahdag Qusar FK: O/U 3.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 46¢ · $376 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 100%
2 arb excluded
$376.12
-$1.36
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $433.94 | $324.15 | -$27.06 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.5¢ | $246.16 | $221.83 | -$24.37 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55.9¢ | $105 | $102.32 | -$2.69 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 58.4¢ | $86.03 | $42.69 | -$2.33 | 50% 28246-28129 (56375) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58.4¢ | $23.02 | $21.48 | -$1.54 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.2¢ | $22 | $21.21 | -$0.79 | |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $8.61 | $6.99 | -$1.61 | 73% 2465-924 (3389) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $2.03 | $2.28 | +$0.25 | 50% 21060-21316 (42376) |
Invested
$433.94
Value
$324.15
PnL
-$27.06
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.03
Value
$42.69
PnL
-$2.33
Record
50%
28246-28129 (56375)
Both legs:
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.61
Value
$6.99
PnL
-$1.61
Record
73%
2465-924 (3389)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
21060-21316 (42376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.