Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AutoZone Q1 domestic same store sales growth be between 0.5% and 1.5%?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 37¢ · $790 held · ends Dec 8

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Dec 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$790.21

Combined PnL

$126.62

Smart Money Entry

30.6¢ → 37¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$637.27

Total Shares1,563

Combined PnL+$98.24

No5 traders

Total Value$152.94

Total Shares243

Combined PnL+$28.37

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

390h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$289.37	$386.15	+$96.78	48% 498-541 (1039)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 34.2¢	$138.91	$150.29	+$11.38	35% 18887-34923 (53810)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$472.66	$85.67	-$15.68	41% 6396-9374 (15770)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 68.3¢	$212.01	$67.08	+$15.09	20% 2788-10990 (13778)
clazzy1<$100	Noavg 52¢	$31.2	$37.8	+$6.6	64% 492-273 (765)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 31¢	$10.94	$22.22	+$11.29	49% 8980-9523 (18503)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 73¢	$22.63	$19.53	-$3.1	18% 362-1675 (2037)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$54.48	$9.61	+$3.22	27% 7006-19139 (26145)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$6.3	-$1.5	35% 4298-8137 (12435)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3	$5.55	+$2.55	31% 2683-6056 (8739)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$289.37

Value

$386.15

PnL

+$96.78

Record

48%

498-541 (1039)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.91

Value

$150.29

PnL

+$11.38

Record

35%

18887-34923 (53810)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$472.66

Value

$85.67

PnL

-$15.68

Record

41%

6396-9374 (15770)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$212.01

Value

$67.08

PnL

+$15.09

Record

20%

2788-10990 (13778)

clazzy1<$100

Invested

$31.2

Value

$37.8

PnL

+$6.6

Record

64%

492-273 (765)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$11.29

Record

49%

8980-9523 (18503)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$22.63

Value

$19.53

PnL

-$3.1

Record

18%

362-1675 (2037)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.48

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$3.22

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$1.5

Record

35%

4298-8137 (12435)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$2.55

Record

31%

2683-6056 (8739)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

390h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.