Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Wolfsberger AC vs. SK Sturm Graz: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
$-1.3K
49.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 68.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$136.45 | 72% 2540-972 (3512) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 43.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$235.24 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43.7¢ | $849.22 | $787.87 | -$61.35 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 34.6¢ | $410.93 | $707.53 | +$296.6 | |
 RN1 | Overavg 64.4¢ | $1.6K | $882.89 | -$746.77 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Overavg 98¢ | $165.55 | $168.11 | +$2.55 | 95% 23103-1165 (24268) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 25.8¢ | $31.03 | $40.17 | +$9.13 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 31.1¢ | $704.62 | $11.33 | -$693.28 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 26.1¢ | $6.1 | $10.84 | +$4.74 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$1,528.67
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$136.45
Record
72%
2540-972 (3512)
Invested
$1,260.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$235.24
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$1,619.01
Value
$882.89
PnL
-$746.77
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$165.55
Value
$168.11
PnL
+$2.55
Record
95%
23103-1165 (24268)
Invested
$31.03
Value
$40.17
PnL
+$9.13
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$704.62
Value
$11.33
PnL
-$693.28
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$10.84
PnL
+$4.74
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.