Will Sydney FC win on 2026-11-06?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 63¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$24.87

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,958

Combined PnL+$11.78

No4 traders

Total Value$396.43

Total Shares969

Combined PnL+$13.1

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 63.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	+$2.95	51% 26264-24900 (51164)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 63.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.97	53% 16906-15021 (31927)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$227.71	$227.79	+$0.08	50% 26039-25715 (51754)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.5¢	$150.1	$149.99	-$0.12
└ No leg	Noavg 36.4¢	$77.61	$77.81	+$0.2
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 36.1¢	$183.01	$190.05	+$7.04	64% 10080-5683 (15763)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 36.1¢	$181.49	$187.64	+$6.16	64% 10045-5612 (15657)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 63¢	$149.31	$146.94	+$1.19	48% 61641-66525 (128166)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$13.69	$13.88	+$0.19	51% 6428-6209 (12637)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 65.2¢	$6.69	$6.36	-$0.32	50% 21319-21602 (42921)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$6.35	$6.2	+$0	52% 8817-8025 (16842)
PA Pan9X<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$5	$5	+$0	54% 10007-8409 (18416)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$5.15	$4.86	-$0.29	33% 1177-2341 (3518)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,863.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$2.95

Record

51%

26264-24900 (51164)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$1,171.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.97

Record

53%

16906-15021 (31927)

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$227.71

Value

$227.79

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

26039-25715 (51754)

Both legs:

Yes$150.163.5¢-$0.12

No$77.6136.4¢+$0.2

GC-PCTR

Invested

$183.01

Value

$190.05

PnL

+$7.04

Record

64%

10080-5683 (15763)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$181.49

Value

$187.64

PnL

+$6.16

Record

64%

10045-5612 (15657)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$149.31

Value

$146.94

PnL

+$1.19

Record

48%

61641-66525 (128166)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$13.69

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

6428-6209 (12637)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.36

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

21319-21602 (42921)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8817-8025 (16842)

Pan9X<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10007-8409 (18416)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.29

Record

33%

1177-2341 (3518)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.