Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sydney FC, while the market favors Central Coast Mariners FC (61%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney FC (100%) · Sydney FC at 40¢ · $809 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Sydney FC
5
Sydney FC 100%
$808.88
-$14.42
38.7¢ → 39.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSydney FC at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Central Coast Mariners FC 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Sydney FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Sydney FCavg 38.7¢ | $681.46 | $669.7 | -$11.75 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Sydney FCavg 38.5¢ | $77 | $76 | -$1 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Sydney FCavg 39¢ | $52.89 | $51.54 | -$1.36 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Sydney FCavg 39¢ | $10 | $9.74 | -$0.26 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Sydney FCavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.9 | -$0.05 | 52% 8584-7828 (16412) |
Invested
$681.46
Value
$669.7
PnL
-$11.75
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$77
Value
$76
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$52.89
Value
$51.54
PnL
-$1.36
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.26
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
8584-7828 (16412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.