Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 52¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 7

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$18.3

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 51.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,715

Combined PnL+$173.51

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,742

Combined PnL-$191.82

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 62.5¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$210.52	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.5¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	-$732.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.3¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$522.27
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$27.7	47% 205-228 (433)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$215.41	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 31¢	$631.79	$774.45	+$142.66	33% 1168-2402 (3570)
LI Limousin	Underavg 51.2¢	$547.6	$528.9	-$18.7	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 54.9¢	$118.6	$133.94	+$15.34	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
SE sentrio	Underavg 56¢	$103.77	$114.89	+$11.12	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55.5¢	$111	$62	+$8	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 53¢	$43.99	$51.46	+$7.47	50% 1412-1411 (2823)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$8.66	$10.95	+$2.3	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$4.44	$4.81	+$0.37	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 34.1¢	$3.76	$4.19	+$0.43	59% 33219-23387 (56606)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$1.61	$2.03	+$0.43	49% 1791-1892 (3683)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,989.61

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$210.52

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

Both legs:

Under$3,519.1962.5¢-$732.79

Over$1,470.4237.3¢+$522.27

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$1,679.43

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$27.7

Record

47%

205-228 (433)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,771.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$215.41

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$631.79

Value

$774.45

PnL

+$142.66

Record

33%

1168-2402 (3570)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$547.6

Value

$528.9

PnL

-$18.7

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$118.6

Value

$133.94

PnL

+$15.34

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$103.77

Value

$114.89

PnL

+$11.12

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$111

Value

$62

PnL

+$8

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$43.99

Value

$51.46

PnL

+$7.47

Record

50%

1412-1411 (2823)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.66

Value

$10.95

PnL

+$2.3

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$0.43

Record

59%

33219-23387 (56606)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.61

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.