Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 27¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$84.44
20.7¢ → 26.5¢
+28% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 79.4¢ | $2.8K | $3.1K | +$316.96 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 79.4¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$169.98 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 15.7¢ | $674.39 | $1.2K | +$486.94 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 21.9¢ | $439.55 | $421.89 | -$17.66 | 48% 1756-1884 (3640) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 20.8¢ | $110.96 | $133.36 | +$22.4 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.5¢ | $60.86 | $88.45 | +$27.58 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 13.3¢ | $20.47 | $71.57 | +$51.45 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.7¢ | $3.37 | $8.55 | +$5.18 | 49% 1777-1875 (3652) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 85.6¢ | $12.14 | $7.44 | -$4.7 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $6.59 | $6.77 | +$0.18 | 51% 38190-37427 (75617) |
Invested
$2,773.61
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$316.96
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Both legs:
Invested
$439.55
Value
$421.89
PnL
-$17.66
Record
48%
1756-1884 (3640)
Invested
$110.96
Value
$133.36
PnL
+$22.4
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$60.86
Value
$88.45
PnL
+$27.58
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20.47
Value
$71.57
PnL
+$51.45
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$8.55
PnL
+$5.18
Record
49%
1777-1875 (3652)
Invested
$12.14
Value
$7.44
PnL
-$4.7
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$6.59
Value
$6.77
PnL
+$0.18
Record
51%
38190-37427 (75617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.