Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Perth Glory FC (40%) · Perth Glory FC at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Perth Glory FC
5
Perth Glory FC 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$29.38
92.6¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPerth Glory FC at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Perth Glory FCavg 92.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$31.9 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Newcastle United Jets FCavg 7.3¢ | $153.44 | $180.19 | +$26.75 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
| └ Newcastle United Jets FC leg | Newcastle United Jets FCavg 7.3¢ | $117.04 | $143.79 | +$26.75 | |
| └ Perth Glory FC leg | Perth Glory FCavg 91¢ | $36.4 | $36.4 | +$0 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Perth Glory FCavg 92.5¢ | $27.74 | $27.44 | -$0.3 | 54% 10438-8758 (19196) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Newcastle United Jets FCavg 8.4¢ | $3.35 | $3.4 | +$0.05 | 50% 1834-1824 (3658) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Newcastle United Jets FCavg 8.4¢ | $3.35 | $3.4 | +$0.05 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Newcastle United Jets FCavg 7¢ | $0.45 | $3.16 | +$2.71 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
Invested
$1,837.46
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$31.9
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$153.44
Value
$180.19
PnL
+$26.75
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.74
Value
$27.44
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
10438-8758 (19196)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1834-1824 (3658)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$3.16
PnL
+$2.71
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.