Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 38¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$2.6K
$101.79
37¢ → 37.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $929.45 | $1.0K | +$73.84 | 50% 28899-28703 (57602) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $512.76 | $537.95 | +$25.2 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $457.26 | $437.31 | -$19.95 | 50% 1834-1824 (3658) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $397.75 | $428.95 | +$38.38 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 64¢ | $196.02 | $185.89 | -$14.82 | 64% 10178-5715 (15893) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $19.87 | $18.69 | -$1.18 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $2.07 | +$0.32 | 54% 10438-8758 (19196) |
Invested
$929.45
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$73.84
Record
50%
28899-28703 (57602)
Invested
$512.76
Value
$537.95
PnL
+$25.2
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
Invested
$457.26
Value
$437.31
PnL
-$19.95
Record
50%
1834-1824 (3658)
Invested
$397.75
Value
$428.95
PnL
+$38.38
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$196.02
Value
$185.89
PnL
-$14.82
Record
64%
10178-5715 (15893)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$19.87
Value
$18.69
PnL
-$1.18
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0.32
Record
54%
10438-8758 (19196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.