Will Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$3.9K
$421.23
74.8¢ → 87.5¢
+17% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 75.1¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$252.42 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 73.6¢ | $566.78 | $658.7 | +$91.92 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Noavg 74.2¢ | $291.03 | $334.76 | +$43.73 | 46% 1788-2098 (3886) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 75.3¢ | $252.3 | $252.97 | -$0.52 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $201.44 | $209.84 | +$8.39 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $156.13 | $181.5 | +$25.37 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 75¢ | $166.83 | $166.83 | +$0 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $7.69 | $7.5 | -$0.19 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $7.5 | +$0.15 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.75 | -$0.05 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
Invested
$1,823.28
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$252.42
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$566.78
Value
$658.7
PnL
+$91.92
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$291.03
Value
$334.76
PnL
+$43.73
Record
46%
1788-2098 (3886)
Invested
$252.3
Value
$252.97
PnL
-$0.52
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$201.44
Value
$209.84
PnL
+$8.39
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
Invested
$156.13
Value
$181.5
PnL
+$25.37
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$166.83
Value
$166.83
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
Invested
$7.69
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.19
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.