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6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$114.36

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 59¢

+77% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,793

Combined PnL+$112.26

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.14

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$2.09

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$595.44	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.8¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$740.33
└ No leg	Noavg 33.7¢	$204.89	$349.77	+$144.88
LI LightParadox	Noavg 33.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$97.62	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 36.7¢	$77.1	$75.58	-$1.52	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$53.76	$63.47	+$9.71	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$38.2	$43.49	+$5.29	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 33¢	$16.83	$18.36	+$1.53	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$4.02	$3.65	-$0.37	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$67.04	$2.14	+$2.09	58% 47486-34282 (81768)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,189.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$595.44

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Both legs:

Yes$1,985.0367.8¢-$740.33

No$204.8933.7¢+$144.88

LightParadox

Invested

$1,097.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$97.62

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$77.1

Value

$75.58

PnL

-$1.52

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$53.76

Value

$63.47

PnL

+$9.71

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$38.2

Value

$43.49

PnL

+$5.29

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.04

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$2.09

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.