Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-11-07?

1 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (7%) · Yes at 44¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 7

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 7%

Total Value

$28.4K

Combined PnL

-$182.25

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares31,651

Combined PnL-$208.31

No13 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares25,013

Combined PnL+$26.06

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR	Yesavg 45.2¢	$14.3K	$14.1K	-$208.31	48% 44-48 (92)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 55.2¢	$7.8K	$7.9K	+$111.33	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$18.27	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 57.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$43.84	48% 1730-1861 (3591)
LI Limousin	Noavg 57.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.03	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 57¢	$670.01	$652.38	-$17.63	51% 38171-37411 (75582)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 56.7¢	$284.14	$278.07	-$6.07	49% 1756-1850 (3606)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 56¢	$236.83	$234.9	-$2.02	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 55.5¢	$189.06	$189.11	+$0.05	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 56¢	$135.37	$134.16	-$1.21	50% 2769-2743 (5512)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 55¢	$18.59	$20.45	+$1.86	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 55¢	$36.62	$16.66	-$0.55	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 56¢	$10	$9.91	-$0.09	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$5.54	$5.54	-$0	54% 10365-8691 (19056)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,292.86

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$208.31

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

Flaznorp

Invested

$7,752.61

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$111.33

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,359.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$18.27

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,448.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$43.84

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

Limousin

Invested

$1,124.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.03

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

SnakeBall

Invested

$670.01

Value

$652.38

PnL

-$17.63

Record

51%

38171-37411 (75582)

LightParadox

Invested

$284.14

Value

$278.07

PnL

-$6.07

Record

49%

1756-1850 (3606)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$236.83

Value

$234.9

PnL

-$2.02

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

38791873984189

Invested

$189.06

Value

$189.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$135.37

Value

$134.16

PnL

-$1.21

Record

50%

2769-2743 (5512)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$18.59

Value

$20.45

PnL

+$1.86

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$36.62

Value

$16.66

PnL

-$0.55

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 14 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.