Will Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 74¢ · $124 held · ended Nov 7

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$124.4

Combined PnL

$1.57

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$71.03

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$0.38

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.36

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$1.18

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 73¢	$56.01	$56.4	+$0.38	50% 28862-28672 (57534)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$38.94	$40.5	+$1.56	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$11.49	$11.08	-$0.41	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 74¢	$10.94	$10.94	-$0	51% 6508-6273 (12781)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.7	+$0	54% 10365-8691 (19056)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.75	$1.79	+$0.03	58% 47408-34193 (81601)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$56.01

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

28862-28672 (57534)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.94

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$1.56

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.49

Value

$11.08

PnL

-$0.41

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$10.94

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

6508-6273 (12781)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.