Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$860.63

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,797

Combined PnL-$97.89

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,836

Combined PnL-$762.74

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Mastermoney	Overavg 71.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$97.89	46% 206-240 (446)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 35.8¢	$808.73	$1.1K	+$268.57	50% 33353-32915 (66268)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$5.27	$10.74	+$5.47	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 68¢	$1.0K	$0.75	$-1.0K	72% 2399-924 (3323)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$11.13	$0.01	-$11.12	59% 45754-32097 (77851)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$2.34	$0	-$2.34	53% 4540-4093 (8633)

Mastermoney

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$97.89

Record

46%

206-240 (446)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$808.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$268.57

Record

50%

33353-32915 (66268)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.27

Value

$10.74

PnL

+$5.47

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,024.08

Value

$0.75

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

72%

2399-924 (3323)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.13

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$11.12

Record

59%

45754-32097 (77851)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.34

Value

PnL

-$2.34

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.